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SEC predictions for week 6: The masses are asses edition
- Updated: October 5, 2012
Greeting, AVY readers. I’m in a wonderful mood today, quite possibly because there’s some great SEC action on tap or it could just be that the Vols have the week off. Which means there’s zero chance of a loss subjecting me to some bad 48-hour Sports Center moratorium. Which means I can totally enjoy an entire weekend of NCAA and NFL action.
And speaking of enjoying action, I definitely enjoyed the action last weekend, going 3-1-1. Only my insistence on continually picking Arkansas and an unexpectedly strong first-half showing from Kentucky kept me from going FIVE AND OH, BITCHES.
I know — if “if”s and “but”s were candies and nuts, everyday would be Christmas, right? And every day’s not Christmas. Which is why I was only 3-1-1. Still, I’ll take it as it puts me 15-17-1 for the year, and I’m telling you, I get better as the season goes on (he typed with hope). And this week’s bound to go well because I’ve decided to employ a little technique I like to call the Masses are Asses.
So what’s the Masses are Asses you ask? It’s when you track the number and see which way it’s going, then play the side towards which it’s headed. Example: Team X opens as a 15-point favorite. Two days later, it’s down to 12. That means people are pounding Y and the book’s trying to even itself out by enticing people to get on X.
And while doing what the book wants you to do may sound counterintuitive, this philosophy begs to differ because it contends that the average person is an idiot (fact) and will therefore choose the wrong side. HENCE you should go the other way.
I relied upon the technique almost exclusively during this one insanely hot streak I had in college. I was pounding the man, y’all, to the point where I began to feel like royalty, so I started calling it the Let Them Eat Cake theory, but that seemed a little bourgeoisie for my tastes, so I changed it again, this time to GOTW (go the other way).
But after I lost a Monday Night Football game thanks to a total bullshit call in the final minute, I switched it back to the Masses are Asses (TMAA from this point forward) and once again began to pound the man. So much, in fact, that I decided to use my earnings to hook up my pet iguana. Stan. He had this shitty little aquarium that he lived in and I felt he, too, should benefit from all these stupid people upon whom I was capitalizing.
So I bought him not one, but two big-ass ficus trees (fici trees?) along with half a dozen electric hot rocks and with the help of these items, I converted the front foyer of this shitty house that my jackass friends and I were renting into Stan’s official room — with, of course — the (begrudging) permission of my roommates.
Around that time, we experienced an Indian summer, which is why, despite the fact it was early November, we had the front door open for like a week straight and during that week, Stan ran away. I was devastated. And kinda pissed I’d blown all that money on (by what was then) two dead ficus trees and these stupid rocks that wouldn’t even work right unless you plugged them in. Hello, rocks? WTF?
There was a metaphor somewhere in all of that which I was unable to grasp at the time, but whatever. I was only 21 and I gave very little thought to such matters, let alone metaphors.
Still, I did find it strange that TMAA stopped working out of nowhere. No worries, though. I just quit using it, knowing that not only would I eventually come back to it, but also that the day I finally did so would be a very special one, indeed.
Oh look! Candies and nuts, y’all! Could it be?
Yes, it could. Merry Christmas, everyone — I’m about to bust out TMAA so I can give you the gift that keeps on giving: STONE COLD LOCKS!
Vandy at Mizzou -7
This one opened at Mizzou -7.5 which means people have been taking the Dores. Wow. These masses must be bigger asses than I realized. Of note: both offenses kinda suck, Vandy has a QB controversy going on, and Missouri wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham and two of his teammates won’t play in this one because they were pretty much busted smoking weed (the vehicle they were i smelled like pot and had a bag of marijuana in it) near the football stadium by campus police. (Guys, if you’re reading this, please keep your eyes peeled for an iguana named Stan. He’d be like 25 now and he’s totally friendly. And he likes cookies.)
Lay the points and take Missouri.
Texas A&M (-12.5) at Ole Miss
This one opened up at A&M -9.5 which means that folks have been getting on the Aggies. And who can blame them. Manziel has been a stud at QB and their lone loss has come to a Florida team that looks to be pretty good. Meanwhile Ole Miss hasn’t beaten anyone of note, their three wins coming over Central Arkansas, UTEP and Tulane. The Rebels got pounded by Alabama on the road and got flat-out obliterated by Texas in Oxford. At night! So, truly, I kinda like A&M in this one, but a theory is a theory, and since the early money has flowed toward the Aggies, I’m going the other way by taking the points and the Rebels.
This one’s intriguing. The line opened with the Gamecocks as a 2.5-point favorite, but that number is now down to 1 which means folks like Georgia. On the one hand, I can see why. After starting the 2011 season 0-2, they’ve won 15 of their last 16 and if it weren’t for a bizarre loss in OT to Michigan State (aided by some questionable play calling in the first OT), that stat would be 16 straight. Still, Gamecock QB Connor Shaw has looked fantastic and they’re playing in Columbia at night, so it’s sure to be rowdy.
I look for a tight ballgame here. Both teams are evenly matched as evidenced by the fact they each beat their only common opponent (Missouri) by 21 points. So if they’re evenly matched, and home field is a three-point advantage, then it’d seem like the one point Carolina’s laying should be more like three.
Which means the Gamecocks are not only the clear pick according to TMAA, but are also a value play as well. Especially now that the Bulldog’s leading receiver, Michael Bennett, is out for the year with a torn ACL.
South Carolina -1 for the cover.
Arkansas at Auburn -8.5
Oh, my. Damn Arkansas. I’ve picked them every single week and they’ve shit the bucket every single week. Last week? They had five drives of over 50 yards and were in the red zone five times as well. Yet they only scored on one of those red-zone opportunities. And while that’s astonishing, it’s not nearly as astonishing as this: they racked up 515 yards on 98 plays — NINETY EIGHT PLAYS — yet only scored 10 points in losing by 48! Which, I’m reasonably sure, is IMPOSSIBLE. Yet they did it.
Here’s the deal, though: the number started at Auburn -10.5 and is now at -8.5 which means more people have been picking Arkansas. So you should go the other way and pick Auburn.
BUT, you’ll lose if you do. There’s no way that Auburn’s D can stop Arkansas. And unlike A&M, Auburn will NOT be able to keep the Hogs out of the end zone. I’m convinced they’ll not only cover, but get the W. And I’m predicting a blowout. (If you’re reading, MRL, STOP LAUGHING AT ME.)
So I’m fading TMAA by siding with the masses! Take the Hogs and the 8.5 points. It’ll be plenty.
Mississippi State -10 at Kentucky
This one opened with Mississippi as a 14-point favorite and I gotta tell you, I don’t see how in the world this number has gone down to 10. Because Kentucky’s horrible. They put together one good half of football last weekend and unless they do that again this weekend, they’ll get run out of the stadium.
TMAA says take the Bulldogs over the Cats. And I agree. Lay the 10 and take Mississippi State. It’s a no-brainer.
LSU -2.5 over Florida
It started at LSU -3 and it’s moved down to 2.5 so people have been picking Florida so you should get on the Tigers. And it makes sense to me. Even so, I get if this game gives you pause because the home team’s getting the points and they’re both undefeated. Plus, LSU is coming off of two uninspired performances in a row to Auburn (12-10) and Towson (38-22).
But this one boils down to which QB will play better — Driskel or Mettenberger. And though he’s had a rough go of it of late, I think Mettenberger’s gonna get it done on the road. Know why? He shaved off that horrendous moustache. And dropping a look as atrocious as that HAS to be a good thing.
Plus, say what you want about him, but I’ll take the Hat over Muschamp all day long. (But only because I kinda hate Muschamp.)
Hope you enjoy the games this weekend!