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SEC predictions for week 7: I’m on a damn roll
- Updated: October 12, 2012
I’m on fire. After starting the season 12-16 against the number, I’ve pulled to 500 by rattling off a 7-3-1 record in the last two weeks — last week’s 4-2 mark courtesy of the Masses are Asses theory I pioneered in the early 90s. For the year, I’m now 19-19-1.
My recent hot streak makes sense, as I tend to get a bit better once we get into the heart of the SEC season when horrible games like Ole Miss – Tulane cease to exist. Which means you can expect more of the same this week. But before I get to my picks, I thought I’d point out the post I put up earlier today which pokes fun at Gene Chizik’s wife, who was nice enough to show everyone on Facebook her cray-cray the other day. It’s already one of our most popular posts here at AVY, you know, just behind the butt chugging efforts and that little ditty on Kenny Chesney we’re so fond of.
Okay, enough with the self promotion. On to this weeks picks! In honor of Jonna Chizik, let’s start with her husband’s shitty team, shall we?
Auburn at Ole Miss (-5.5)
After LSU shit the bed last week against Florida, suddenly Auburn’s 10-12 loss to the Bayou Bengals wasn’t quite as noble as it once seemed. And now that Chizik’s wife has gone to Facebook with a message about Satan stealing all of Auburn’s football mojo, I expect, well, all hell to break loose. Ole Miss lost a heart breaker at home to A&M last week and will be looking to get well against the Tigers. Lay the points and play the Rebels.
Alabama (-21) at Missouri
You know what Bama’s not been doing? Covering. You know what Missouri’s not been doing? Winning SEC games, getting outscored by 46 points in their three conference match ups. And if Georgia, South Carolina and Vanderbilt are averaging 15 point victories over Mizzou, surely Bama can improve upon that margin by a touchdown, right?
Lay the points and take the Tide on the road.
Florida (-9) at Vandy
Classic trap game, as the Gators will surely be tempted to look ahead to their showdown with South Carolina next weekend. Plus, Vanderbilt’s feeling all good about themselves after posting the first SEC road of the James Franklin era. So, though the number isn’t a good one (I think it should be higher), I’m predicting a closer game than people might think. Florida plays sloppy but gets the W, but not by 9. Take the points and the Dores.
Kentucky at Arkansas (-18.5)
This number is evidence of the bi-polar nature of the gaming community. Remember, the number isn’t a prediction of what’s going to happen. It’s an attempt to split the money evenly so the book can get its 10%. Which means that in the swing of just one week the Razorbacks have gone from a 8.5-point underdog to an 18.5-point favorite, each week against teams with the same number of SEC wins (0) as well as the same number of overall wins (1). Which is why I find the number to be inflated, but not too inflated to play. Because I truly believe that the Razorbacks will finish their SEC schedule respectably now that they’ve gotten their much-needed get-well win. Take Arkansas for the cover.
Texas A&M (-7.5) at Louisiana Tech
You know what Sonny Dykes is doing that Derek Dooley never did at La Tech? WIN. He’s 18-12 since taking over the program in 2010 while Dooley was just 17-20 the three seasons prior. And La Tech’s a whopping 5-0 this year. Granted, those wins have all come against sub-500 teams, but still, they have a great offense and will be five kinds of jacked up to play an SEC opponent (or even A&M) in a nationally televised game (ESPNU) at their place at night. Take the points and La Tech.
South Carolina at LSU (-2.5)
Eesh. This is a tough one. Surely South Carolina isn’t as good as they looked last week at home against Georgia, right? (No one is!) And surely LSU isn’t as bad as they’ve looked their last three games, right? And LSU never loses in Death Valley at night, right?
Wrong. Mettenberger’s struggling to complete half his passes in SEC play which means Clowney’s gonna be coming. (He’s a damn beast!) Throw in a Gamecock offense that can move the ball on the ground as well as through the air, and you got yourself a Gamecock “upset” on the road.
Remember — I picked South Carolina to win the east, so this isn’t exactly a surprise to me. I thought they were for real before the season and so far, nothing I’ve seen has changed my mind. Gamecocks win outright.
Tennessee at Mississippi State (-3)
This game is huge for Mississippi State’s season, but even bigger for Derek Dooley’s career. Ironic that he’ll be sitting in the press box given how hot his seat is, but that’s exactly where he’ll be thanks to his recent hip surgery. Much has been made about the match up between Tyler Bray and Mississippi State’s highly touted secondary. But I don’t think that’s the key to the game because I’m convinced that Tennessee is going to get theirs on offense.
No, what I think the key to the game is how many big plays our defense gives up. Not that I said “how many,” because, trust me, there will be a big play or two given up on defense. And with an offense as talented as Tennessee’s, we can probably live with that. But if we give up more than that, it’ll be a long night in Starkville.
And I don’t want a long night in Starkville. I want happy people in Tennessee. So take the Vols and the points and hold your breath. I have a feeling this one’s gonna be a wild affair.